HPAI H5 was first detected in the Western Cape in April 2023; H7 outbreaks followed across multiple provinces. DALRRD’s Animal Health Directorate coordinated provincial veterinary services to implement stamp-out measures across affected farms — quarantine, compulsory culling, carcass disposal, and movement controls on live birds. By 21 September 2023, DALRRD had reported 50 H7 and 10 H5 outbreaks, with approximately 107,705 chickens dead from disease and 1,318,521 culled across H7 outbreak sites, and 98,249 dead and 1,156,283 culled across H5 sites, as reported to WOAH. SAPA’s aggregate estimates indicated approximately 7.5 million birds culled since April 2023, with broilers, layer hens, and breeder flocks all affected. DALRRD reported that farms constituting approximately 70% of national production capacity had not been infected and continued operating. Egg shortages emerged as a consequence of layer flock losses. DALRRD issued import permits for fertilised eggs, day-old chicks, egg products, and poultry meat to rebuild domestic supply. By November 2023, DALRRD reported that 11 H5 and 15 H7 outbreak sites had been cleared of HPAI, and that the outbreak appeared to be slowing — approximately 750,000 additional birds were culled in October and November 2023, compared to higher monthly losses earlier in the year. The South African Veterinary Association estimated that more than 10 million birds could ultimately be affected by the full outbreak and associated controls.

Anticipated Effects

If the national stamp-out policy remains the primary HPAI control strategy, future detections of infection in commercial poultry would be expected to trigger additional flock-level depopulation, particularly in breeder and layer operations where high stocking densities create epidemiological risk.

If the policy movement toward authorising HPAI vaccination for South African poultry is implemented, reliance on mass culling as the sole primary control tool could be reduced, conditionally changing the profile of future enforcement responses to HPAI outbreaks.

If DALRRD continues to facilitate imports of fertilised eggs and day-old chicks during future outbreak recovery periods, the domestic production system would increasingly rely on imported genetic inputs during rebuilding phases, potentially altering the structure of domestic breeder supply chains.

Significance Rationale

Assigned Reduces Exploitation (impact direction) because the compulsory depopulation of infected and epidemiologically linked flocks produced a documented, quantified contraction of the commercial poultry population: approximately 7.5–8.25 million broiler and layer chickens were culled, representing approximately 20–30% of total national chicken stock and approximately 30% of domestic layer capacity, with associated egg shortages and emergency import measures.

Assigned Changes Scale (impact type) because the primary mechanism is the compulsory depopulation of infected and epidemiologically linked flocks — directly eliminating several million birds from the domestic production system over a short period. Subsequent restocking and import authorisations were responses to the scale reduction, not its cause.

Assigned High significance because the culling of approximately 7.5–8.25 million birds represents approximately 20–30% of South Africa’s commercial chicken stock and approximately 30% of domestic layer capacity. DALRRD’s authorisation of emergency imports of 9 million fertilised eggs and 30,986 metric tonnes of poultry meat reflects the magnitude of disruption to the national supply system.

The scale change is transitional: the commercial poultry sector contracted sharply during 2023 through culling, and DALRRD and SAPA sources document ongoing restocking and rebuilding extending into 2024, with full recovery of the estimated 27 million national layer flock not documented as complete by end-2023.