Australia 2025 – Collapse in live sheep export volumes following phase-out announcement
Trade & Market Change
In Effect
January 1, 2025
Summary
Following the May 2024 announcement and subsequent legislation establishing a 1 May 2028 end date for live sheep exports by sea from Australia, export volumes contracted sharply. In calendar year 2024, approximately 433,000 sheep were exported live by sea from Australia — the lowest annual volume in at least 35 years, 33% below 2023 levels and 41% below the five-year average. In January–February 2025, approximately 18,205 sheep were exported, representing an 84% decline on the same period in 2024 and 88% below the five-year average for those months. Concurrent with the export decline, interstate transfers of sheep from Western Australia to eastern states increased substantially, with nearly 465,000 head transferred in 2023–24, exceeding the full-year 2024 live export volume.
Background Context
Australia’s live sheep export trade by sea operated primarily from Western Australia to Middle East and North African markets, with Jordan and Kuwait together accounting for over half of 2024 volumes. A seasonal moratorium on live sheep exports during the northern hemisphere summer, in place since 2019, had already altered the temporal pattern of the trade and reduced annual volumes relative to pre-2019 levels. On 11 May 2024, federal Agriculture Minister Murray Watt announced the phase-out end date of 1 May 2028, and the Export Control Amendment (Ending Live Sheep Exports by Sea) Act 2024 subsequently passed both chambers of the Australian Parliament. Industry projections from Meat & Livestock Australia and ABARES, cited in Mecardo analysis, had anticipated a partial volume recovery through to 2027 before the 2028 cessation; the observed 2024–2025 data show a substantially sharper contraction than those projections.
System Impact
Direction
Reduces Exploitation
Type
Changes Scale
Significance
High
Live sheep export volumes by sea from Australia fell to approximately 433,000 head in calendar year 2024, the lowest annual total in at least 35 years of available records, according to Mecardo analysis drawing on Meat & Livestock Australia and ABARES data. This represented a 33% decline from 2023 and a 41% reduction below the five-year average. In January–February 2025, approximately 18,205 sheep were exported live by sea, down 84% on the same months in 2024 and 88% below the five-year average for that period. Jordan accounted for approximately 30% of 2024 live sheep export volumes and Kuwait more than a quarter. Concurrent with the export decline, nearly 465,000 sheep were transferred from Western Australia to eastern states in 2023–24 — exceeding the full-year 2024 live export volume — indicating a documented shift in marketing channels toward domestic slaughter and restocking. A New South Wales parliamentary inquiry recorded evidence that the phase-out decision contributed to increased sheep transport from Western Australia to eastern states, with reported effects on sheep supply and prices in receiving regions. DAFF continued to issue export permits and administer transition programs, with an assistance package of approximately $140 million operational during the transition period.
Anticipated Effects
Industry projections cited by Mecardo, based on Meat & Livestock Australia and ABARES modelling, forecast live sheep export volumes recovering to approximately 540,000 head in 2025 — around 20% above 2024 levels — and continuing to climb to approximately 39% above 2024 levels by 2027, before the legislated 2028 cessation. Whether these projections will be realised depends on market conditions, exporter behaviour, and importing country demand during the transition period.
If the Export Control Amendment (Ending Live Sheep Exports by Sea) Act 2024 is implemented as written, live sheep exports by sea from Australia would cease from 1 May 2028, removing the remaining export channel for this trade.
Whether the documented contraction in live sea exports represents a net reduction in the number of sheep in Australian exploitation systems, or primarily a redirection of animals to domestic slaughter and alternative markets, is not established in available sources. Available evidence documents both the volume decline in the live export channel and increased interstate transfers and domestic slaughter activity; the proportion of previously exported sheep that are instead not being produced at all versus being redirected within the system cannot be determined from current data.
Significance Rationale
Assigned Reduces Exploitation (impact direction) because the documented volume data establish a material contraction in the live sheep sea export system: 2024 volumes are the lowest in at least 35 years, and early 2025 data show near-cessation of the trade. This is a documented scale reduction in the live export sub-system, not an anticipated effect.
Assigned Changes Scale (impact type) because the primary mechanism is a documented decrease in the number of sheep moving through the live sea export channel. Assigned High significance because the contraction represents a near-elimination of a trade system that at its five-year average moved substantially more than 433,000 animals annually, and early 2025 data indicate the trade is approaching cessation in advance of the 2028 legislative end date.
Note: the volume decline in the live export sub-system does not establish a net reduction in the total number of sheep in Australian exploitation systems — redirection to domestic slaughter and interstate transfers is documented; see Anticipated Effects and Editorial Correction Notice.
The scale change is structural within its scope: the live sheep sea export system is approaching cessation in advance of the 2028 legislative end date, with 2025 volumes indicating near-elimination of the trade channel.
Within The System
Key Actors
Mecardo, drawing on Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) and ABARES data, published the volume analysis documenting the 2024 and early 2025 export contraction. The Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) administers the live export regulatory framework, issues export permits during the transition period, and manages the approximately $140 million transition assistance package. Licensed live sheep exporters operating from Australia are the primary commercial actors directly affected by the volume decline. Jordan and Kuwait are the principal importing markets, accounting for the majority of 2024 export volumes. The Western Australian Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development (DPIRD) documented interstate sheep transfer patterns. The New South Wales Portfolio Committee No. 4 (Regional NSW) examined impacts of the phase-out on New South Wales sheep supply chains in Report No. 60 (March 2025). Livestock SA and the National Rural Women’s Coalition produced submissions and situation reports documenting industry and community impacts.
Editorial Correction Notice
Development date: Set to 1 January 2025 as a placeholder. The volume collapse spans calendar year 2024 and extends into early 2025; no single event date is assignable. The most precisely dated data point is the Mecardo analysis published in early 2025 drawing on full-year 2024 figures; the precise publication date of that analysis would be the closest candidate for a development date and should be verified from the Mecardo article directly.
Scale & Prevalence: The 2024 annual live sheep export figure of approximately 433,000 head and the January–February 2025 figure of approximately 18,205 head are drawn from Mecardo analysis based on MLA and ABARES data. The precise 2023 annual export volume is not directly stated in the research output — the figure of approximately 646,000 head is derived from the reported 33% year-on-year decline and should be treated as an estimate. The exact five-year average baseline is not stated; only percentage deviations from it are reported. Direct consultation of DAFF livestock export statistical tables would provide precise year-by-year and month-by-month head counts by destination market.
Anticipated Effects: Industry volume projections for 2025–2027 (approximately 540,000 head in 2025, approximately 39% above 2024 by 2027) are based on MLA and ABARES modelling cited by Mecardo and should be treated as scenario-based projections, not realised outcomes. Whether these projections have been borne out requires verification against 2025 full-year DAFF export statistics.
Scale versus redirection: Available sources document both a decline in live sea export volumes and an increase in interstate sheep transfers from Western Australia to eastern states. The proportion of previously exported sheep now being redirected to domestic slaughter versus not being produced or sold at all cannot be determined from current data. Disaggregated data on total Australian sheep slaughter numbers for 2024 relative to prior years, available from MLA or ABS livestock slaughter statistics, would partially address this gap.
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